Tuesday, March 18, 2008

My NCAA Tournament Prediction

I'm not a huge college basketball fan, nor will I ever expect to be one. But like so many others, I'm fascinated by the craziness that is March Madness. Even non-fans have come to appreciate the maddening task of trying to predict the NCAA tournament bracket. Although I'm not a college hoops fan, I am a fan of games. So one night I had an idea to come up with a program that would randomly pick the winners in the bracket.

Using no other information other than the bracket seedings, I assigned values to each of the teams. #1 seeds had values of 16, #2 seeds had values of 15 and so forth. I then added a random number ranging from 0 to 16 to each team's value. Using these values, I pitted each of the teams against each other. To reduce my deviations (too many upsets), I ran each of the simulated games three times (adding a new random number each time), which would give higher seeded teams an edge if the simulation ran infinitely, but was still random enough to allow for upsets. Whichever team won the most simulations out of the three runs was considered the winner and moved on to the next round. Applying this formula for every game and every round, I finally came to a tournament winner. And so the 2008 NCAA Champions will be..........

the Memphis Tigers.

Let's see if my crap shoot will pay off. Here's a picture of my complete bracket. Tell me what you think.

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